Why it is not correct to state that there is a 95\% chance that the population mean lies within the interval?
The main reason that any particular 95\% confidence interval does not imply a 95\% chance of containing the mean is because the confidence interval is an answer to a different question, so it is only the right answer when the answer to the two questions happens to have the same numerical solution.
Would it be correct to say that there is a 95\% chance that the true proportion is contained in this interval?
No, its not correct to say that you can be 95\% sure that the true value will be in the confidence interval.
What is the correct answer to the Monty Hall problem?
The Monty Hall problem is deciding whether you do. The correct answer is that you do want to switch. If you do not switch, you have the expected 1/3 chance of winning the car, since no matter whether you initially picked the correct door, Monty will show you a door with a goat.
Why is Monty Hall problem wrong?
The Monty Hall problem has confused people for decades. In the game show, Let’s Make a Deal, Monty Hall asks you to guess which closed door a prize is behind. This statistical illusion occurs because your brain’s process for evaluating probabilities in the Monty Hall problem is based on a false assumption.
Is a 50\% confidence interval good?
More intuitive evaluation (half the 50\% intervals should contain the true value), A sense that in applications it’s best to get a sense of where the parameters and predicted values will be, not to attempt an unrealistic near-certainty.
What it means to be 95\% confident in a 95\% confidence interval?
Strictly speaking a 95\% confidence interval means that if we were to take 100 different samples and compute a 95\% confidence interval for each sample, then approximately 95 of the 100 confidence intervals will contain the true mean value (μ).
Which is better 95\% or 99\% confidence interval?
Level of significance is a statistical term for how willing you are to be wrong. With a 95 percent confidence interval, you have a 5 percent chance of being wrong. A 99 percent confidence interval would be wider than a 95 percent confidence interval (for example, plus or minus 4.5 percent instead of 3.5 percent).
Is the Monty Hall problem 50 50?
You don’t need any math skills to solve it, just a general knowledge of the laws of probability. It’s a 50-50 chance no matter which door you pick! Wrong. It is not a 50-50 choice, but the Monty Hall setup biases you to think that it is.
Is the Monty Hall problem correct?
The mathematics is correct, so you do indeed seem to double your chances by switching but only provided certain assumptions hold. As the words in italics above show, there are actually a number of assumptions: Monty will always open a door. The car is equally likely to be behind any door.
Is the Monty Hall solution correct?
The mathematics is correct, so you do indeed seem to double your chances by switching but only provided certain assumptions hold. As the words in italics above show, there are actually a number of assumptions: Monty will always open a door. Monty never opens the door you have chosen.
What does a 50\% confidence interval mean?
The 50\% confidence intervals look narrow and precise, but figure 27 indicates that this is at a price. The intervals are narrower than the 95\% confidence intervals in figure 26, but around half of them do not include the true value of the parameter.
What is 50\% confidence interval?
2.8 Confidence Interval of Estimated Values
| \%CI | SD Multiplier |
|---|---|
| 50 | 0.674490 |
| 80 | 1.281552 |
| 90 | 1.644854 |
| 95 | 1.959964 |
What is the probability that everything is 50/50 with cancer?
The frequentist answer is no probability is involved, you either do have cancer or you don’t. This is what your friend means by saying everything is 50/50, although a clearer expression is “the probability is 0 or 1, I just don’t know which.”
What is an example of a 50\% chance event?
It is thus a tautology to say that tossing such a coin is an example of an event that have 50\% chances to lead to each possible outcome. The only events that have a probability of 50\% are theoretical events, such the probability for a number selected at random to be odd or even.
Is it always wrong to say 50\%?
It doesn’t guarantee anything, so its also always ‘correct’ to say 50\% how can it be ‘wrong’ if it’s not something with a 0\% or a 100\% chance. Reading your other responses, it’s clear you don’t mean anything like probability by ‘chance’, and you’re happy to concede that ‘chance’ might not be the right word.
Is it possible to have 50\% of time 6?
You are free to believe it, but as you noticed, if you roll that dice x number times, you will not have 50\% of time 6 and 50\% of time not 6. You’re getting chance/probability confused with possible truth values.